Harvest Theories: Agriculture and the Business Cycle

The relation between changes in the agricultural situation and industrial fluctuations is much more complicated than many people think. There exist a good many theories on the subject, which are not easy to reconcile though all are either based on, or backed by, statistical research. One group of theories, which includes the writings of W. S. JEVONS, H. S. JEVONS, and H. L. MOORE, seeks to account for the periodicity of business cycles by establishing the existence of a similar periodicity in agricultural output. The chain of causation runs from cosmic influences to weather conditions, from weather conditions to harvests, and from harvests to general business.

--Gottfried Haberler, Prosperity and Depression: A Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements, 3rd ed. (1943; repr., Lake Success, NY: United Nations, 1946), 151.