Since Credit Default Swaps Can Be Used to Take Down Banks, They Can Be a Financial Weapon of Mass Destruction

Icelandic banks had no difficulties as long as international liquidity was ample and they could easily renew their short-term foreign-denominated debts. In early 2006, however, problems in the interbank market surfaced, in what would later be called the “Geyser crisis.” Price inflation increased and the króna depreciated as foreign money started getting nervous about the sustainability of the Icelandic boom. . . .

A vicious spiral may set in. Rising spreads indicate the market’s distrust of the banks, spurring even further demand for insurance, leading to even higher spreads on the debt, and so on, until the distrust in the bank reaches a point where the bank cannot receive further funding and it fails. Due to this self-reinforcing spiral of distrust and rising bank funding costs, reputable investors, commentators, and economists (most notably Warren Buffet), have called CDS [Credit Default Swaps]  instruments weapons of mass destruction. Indeed, CDSs can be used to take banks down by lowering the confidence in them. Yet they can only work if banks are vulnerable; that is, if they violate the golden rule of banking and mismatch maturities, or they mismatch currencies, or they do both. Only then will the distrust translate into funding problems that threaten the bank’s liquidity and eventually its solvency. When the bank matches maturities and currencies and holds 100 percent reserves to cover its deposits, the distrust may lead to a loss of consumers as some depositors do not continue rolling their funding over; that is, they withdraw their deposits. This, however, will not take down the bank, as no liquidity loss will result. Only a mismatch makes the banks vulnerable to this type of failure.

—Philipp Bagus and David Howden, Deep Freeze: Iceland's Economic Collapse (Auburn, AL: Ludwig von Mises Institute, 2011), 73-74.

Hedge Funds Could Bet on the Downfall of Icelandic Banks by Buying Credit Default Swaps

Credit default swaps written on Icelandic banks soared. A credit default swap (CDS) is a form of insurance that investors buy to compensate for a loss if a particular debtor defaults on its obligation. Thus, when an investor holds a million-dollar bond issued by Glitnir and the insurance premium is twenty-five basis points or 0.25 percent, he can insure himself against a default by paying an annual fee of 0.25 percent of one million, i.e., $2,500. An intriguing aspect of credit default swaps is that you may buy them even though you do not own any debt issued by the company, Glitnir in this example. Lacking ownership in the underlying company, you are just betting that Glitnir will default on its obligation. By paying just $2,500 a hedge fund could make a gross profit $1 million if Glitnir defaulted on its obligations. Funds could bet on the downfall of Icelandic banks by buying credit default swaps, and by the very act of buying the swaps they could hope to undermine confidence in the banks and promote their own investment. The CDS spread on a bond is like an insurance premium in that it indicates the confidence in the bond. At the beginning of 2006 investors started to bet against Icelandic banks because of the banks’ high dependence on wholesale short-term funding and their burgeoning size, which made them too big to be bailed out by the Icelandic government. As foreign investors increased their demand for protection against defaults by Icelandic banks, the price of the insurance increased in CDS markets; that is, spreads on the banks rose.

—Philipp Bagus and David Howden, Deep Freeze: Iceland's Economic Collapse (Auburn, AL: Ludwig von Mises Institute, 2011), 73-74.

The Golden Rule of Banking Is Designed To Prevent Insolvency

For much of its history, banking abided by a “golden rule” that is still alluded to today but rarely followed: the duration to maturity of a bank’s assets should correspond to that of its liabilities. Any incongruence opens the bank to risk in the event of liquidity shocks. . . .

The golden rule was still upheld at the turn of the last century. Ludwig von Mises, building upon his German predecessor Karl Knies, expanded on this sound banking rule:

For the activity of the banks as negotiators of credit the golden rule holds, that an organic connection must be created between the credit transactions and the debit transactions. The credit that the bank grants must correspond quantitatively and qualitatively to the credit that it takes up. More exactly expressed, “The date on which the bank’s obligations fall due must not precede the date on which its corresponding claims can be realized.” Only thus can the danger of insolvency be avoided.

--Philipp Bagus and David Howden, Deep Freeze: Iceland's Economic Collapse (Auburn, AL: Ludwig von Mises Institute, 2011), 8.

Iceland's Banking System Was Heavily Engaged in Maturity Mismatching

Iceland has something in common with other developed economies that the recent economic crisis has affected: its banking system was heavily engaged in maturity mismatching. In other words, Icelandic banks issued short-term liabilities in order to invest in long-term assets. Thus, they had to continuously roll over (renew) their short-term liabilities until their long-term assets matured. . . .

The question that immediately comes to mind is, why did Icelandic banks engage so heavily in this risky practice in the first place? One reason is that maturity mismatching can turn out to be a very profitable business involving a basic interest arbitrage. Normally, long-term interest rates are higher than the corresponding short-term rates. A bank that sells short-term rates (borrows money short-term), while buying long-term rates (investing money long-term) may profit from the difference (the “spread”) between short- and long-term rates. Yet while maturity mismatching can turn out to be profitable, it is also very risky, because the short-term debts require continual reinvestment (that is, there must be a continual “rollover”).

--Philipp Bagus and David Howden, Deep Freeze: Iceland's Economic Collapse (Auburn, AL: Ludwig von Mises Institute, 2011), 7-8.