Hardly Any Economists in America Anticipated that Price-Level Stabilization during the 1920s Would Lead to the Economic Depression that Began in October 1929

Hardly any economists in America anticipated that price-level stabilization during the 1920s would lead to the economic depression that began in October 1929. One of the few who saw a danger in this policy of the Federal Reserve System was Benjamin M. Anderson. As the senior economist for the Chase National Bank of New York City throughout this period, Dr. Anderson authored the Chase Economic Bulletin, which was usually published four to five times every year. He offered detailed analyses of the economic currents in the United States, with special attention to monetary and banking policy and its likely effects on general market conditions. He also often critically evaluated the theories underlying Federal Reserve policy, most particularly the notion of stabilizing the price level as a guide for economic stability.

The most insightful bulletins on this theme were “The Fallacy of ‘The Stabilized Dollar’” (August 1920); “The Gold Standard vs. ‘A Managed Currency’” (March 1925); “Bank Money and the Capital Supply” (November 1926); “Bank Expansion and Savings” (June 1928); “Two ‘New Eras’ Compared: 1896–1903 and 1921–1928” (February 1929); “Commodity Price Stabilization as a False Goal of Central Bank Policy” (May 1929); and “The Financial Situation” (November 1929).

He argued that the Federal Reserve had used its powers to reduce the reserve requirements of member banks, had set the discount rate at which member banks could directly borrow from the Fed below the market rates of interest, and had used “open-market operations” to inject new reserves into the banking system. The increase in bank reserves available for lending purposes as a result of these Fed policies had generated a huge increase in demand deposits and especially in time deposits. As a result, a large monetary inflation had been created by the Federal Reserve during the 1920s.

But the price level had remained stable, producing, Benjamin Anderson said, a false sense of economic stability. In 1926 and 1928, he argued that the amount of bank credit created by Fed policy enabled the financing of new investments in excess of actual savings in the economy. Influenced by Joseph Schumpeter’s The Theory of Economic Development (1911), Anderson argued that monetary expansion in the form of bank credit lowered interest rates, which attracted additional borrowing for long-term investment projects. These additional bank loans with newly created money enabled investment borrowers to bid resources and labor away from consumption and other uses in the economy and redirect their use towards various types of capital formation. The monetary expansion, in other words, induced the undertaking of investment activities in excess of the actual voluntary savings upon which a stable pattern of investment is ultimately dependent. Thus, Federal Reserve policy was creating a serious imbalance in the savings-investment relationship of the American economy.

Anderson estimated that between 1921 and 1928, demand deposits at Federal Reserve member banks had increased 33.8%, while time deposits (whose minimum reserve requirements had been set by the Fed significantly lower than those required for demand deposits) had increased by 135.1%. The resulting increase in lendable funds, he said, fed real-estate and construction booms and produced a dramatic rise in stock-market speculation.

In February 1929, Anderson pointed out that “excessive bank reserves generate bank expansion, that bank expansion running in excess of commercial needs will overflow into capital uses and speculative employments, and that low interest rates and abundant credit will ordinarily reflect themselves in rapidly rising capital values.” In Anderson’s view, these all pointed to the inevitability of a corrective downturn.

--Richard M. Ebeling, “Benjamin Anderson and the False Goal of Price-Level Stabilization,” in Monetary Central Planning and the State (Fairfax, VA: The Future of Freedom Foundation, 2015), Kindle e-book.